The assignment:
A municipal energy supplier faced the challenge of future-proofing its service portfolio in the heating market, particularly focusing on 'gas replacement products' and bundled offerings for both private and business customers. The goal was to determine a viable target portfolio based on market and environmental developments, and to create a robust decision-making basis for prioritisation, resource requirements, partnership strategies, and investments for selected products and services.
The approach:
We began with our template portfolio as a structured longlist of potential heating services and prioritised the relevant individual services, which we then grouped into clusters. For selected clusters – such as "Heat Pumps for Single and Multi-Family Homes" – we developed a scenario-based market potential model and an economic assessment as a business case. For this, we defined standard customer profiles and service modules, established model assumptions transparently (including for existing and new builds, area logic including district heating, renovation and heating replacement dynamics, as well as closure and cross-selling rates), and mapped alternative market developments across separate scenarios.
The result
A consistent, sales-oriented heat strategy was developed with a prioritised target portfolio and a clear structuring of the identified services into clusters. For the clusters that were examined in more detail, there was a scenario-based market potential forecast and related business cases (including contribution margin logic) serving as a reliable foundation for further sales and implementation planning.
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Your contact person
Kilian Vermeulen
Manager
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